The consequences of consequences

I’ve been thinking a lot recently about the idea of ‘second-order effects’.

The first-order effects of an action are the immediate consequences. The second-order effects of an action are the consequences of those consequences.

People employed in fields of complex decision-making are well-versed in the art of predicting second- and subsequent-order effects. Failing to do so can produce some really undesirable outcomes.

Oliver Burkeman, author of the book 4000 Weeks, shares an example that applies to many people in the modern world, most of whom will be the unknowing victims of the second-order effect of their choices.

Lots of people put a lot of time and effort into improving their email inbox management skills. They get better and better at prioritising, scheduling, processing, and replying to email. The first-order effect of this change is the mythical ‘inbox zero’, which is exactly what they hoped for.

The second-order, unexpected effect of this change is the reputation they gain for being highly responsive to email. Because emailing them becomes such a quick, easy and convenient way to get information from them, everyone in their network relies even more heavily on email as the primary form of communication with that person.

The decision they made was to try to manage their email better, and the overall effect of that decision ultimately makes managing email even more challenging than it was before.

Beware the second-order effect.

The likelihood that second-order effects will act in the opposite direction to that intended is surprisingly high.

• Regular use of Google Maps results in further degradation of your navigation skills and increased reliance on it in future.

• Building wider roads to reduce congestion encourages people to use cars more often and results in increased congestion.

• Using social media to stay connected has us feeling more disconnected than ever.

• Finding happiness catalyses hedonic adaptation and makes you unhappy.

Sucks, huh? I agree, but fear not.

Second-order effects can be incredibly positively powerful, if you know how to predict them and wield them to your advantage.