Just because it didn't work, doesn't mean it was a bad decision

The universe is probabilistic, but we tend to think of it as deterministic.

We react to events based on their outputs, rather than their inputs, which I think doesn’t really make any sense.

For example, if someone uses their mobile phone while driving, gets distracted, and plows into a pedestrian and kills them, our justice system will typically send them to jail for a decade or more.

If, on the other hand, that same distracted someone is lucky enough that they only hit a kerb, they pay no penalty (or at the most, a $300 fine and a few demerit points off their licence).

The input—using a mobile phone while driving—is the same. The outputs are different, but only thanks to the probabilities of the universe. So in some ways it’s odd that we punish the two events differently.

This is not a post about the justice system, though. It’s about the decisions you make in your business.

I’m sure you’ve tried lots of experiments to try to improve your financial performance. One that I’m often encouraging is to use public speaking opportunities to grow your practice.

If 1000 professionals split into two groups of 500, and everyone in the first group does a speech to an audience of potential clients, and everyone in the second group perpetuates their commercial status quo, on average, which group do you think will perform better financially over the next 3 months?

I think it’s pretty obvious the first group will perform better overall.

Will everyone in the first group see improved performance after one speech?

No. Definitely not.

That’s statistically so unlikely as to be almost impossible.

In fact, there will be 50, or 100, or 250, or maybe even 400 people in the first group whose financial performance won’t be significantly improved by a single speech.

But that’s not because speaking doesn’t work, it does.

It’s because the universe is probabilistic.

The lesson for you? Observe what’s happening around you. See what strategies and tactics are, in the aggregate, producing the outcomes you want.

And then flip a coin on each of those strategies… a number of times.

Give the universe a chance to reward you with some heads.